Poker math

What is equity in poker?

Equity is the percentage of the pot that belongs to you if nobody folds and the remaining cards are dealt. It is not 'how good the hand feels'. Aces have ~85% equity against a random hand preflop and ~20% against a set on a dry flop. Same cards, different equity.

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Equity vs pot odds vs expected value

Equity is a share. Pot odds are a price. Expected value is what happens when you combine them with fold equity and future streets. Calling is +EV when your equity exceeds the pot odds, ignoring implied odds. Folding a draw that is getting the right price is a leak. Calling a draw that is not, because the hand is pretty, is the same leak in the other direction.

How the Labs estimate it

Exact equity on a Hold'em flop is computable by enumerating every remaining runout. With more cards (Omaha) or more opponents, enumeration gets large, so the Labs run a Monte-Carlo: deal the remaining cards thousands of times, count wins, splits and losses. Five thousand trials is close enough to make a decision. It is not close enough to brag about 0.1% edges.

Range equity, not hand equity

At the table you do not know their two cards. You know a range: the set of hands they play this way. Your equity is against that range, not against the one hand you fear. Beginners compute 'I lose to a set' and fold. Regulars compute 'they have a set 12% of the time and I still have 38% against the rest of the range' and call. The Poker Math and NLH tracks spend a lot of grades on that shift.

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